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股霸朋友交流討論區

好高興上一個帖有超過六百萬查看記錄, 希望大家繼續討論分享.

本帖只供參考及大家交流討論, 作為一個理性投資者請為自己的投資決策行為風險負全部責任.

這是我其中一個用電腦分析策略在近來15年真實歷史數據下的結果, 給大家參考, 按一下會放大:



索羅斯的得意弟子尼德霍夫在他僅有的兩本書中同一樣的思想: 一般傳媒, 基本分析及技術分析都是不可信的, 你必須建立自己的科學分析方法. 索羅斯要自己的兒子去德霍夫那裡學習如何做trader, 而德霍夫的對沖基金好多年都是第一. 德霍夫是在University of Chicago讀博士及曾經在University of California, Berkeley做教授, 而我本身其實也是在同樣知名道的大學畢業.

本人認為經過電腦計算科學方法測試的分析技巧是散户其中一種最可行的辦法因為:

1.只有極少數大戶知道國家及公司真正最有可能的下一步

2.傳媒, 大行, 財演說的大多因為自己利益或吸引大眾

3.國家及公司的數據及報告可以是因為他們想大眾相信是什麼而去精心設計, 外人看多少年都是沒有用的, 因此基本分析是沒有用及主觀的. 財演最愛用基本分析來吹水因為如何吹都得.

4. 一般坊間的技術分析如RSI, 移動平均線在電腦測試下都是沒有用的. 而趨勢線,  波浪理論是必須用極度個人主觀去運用而無法去做電腦測試, 是你想見到什麼就會見到什麼的無用理論, 最適合財演吹水出書用.

總結: 除了少數大戶外, 其他人在一般生活可以找到的資訊絕大多數都是不可信的. 用不可信的資訊投資/投機是一件好可怕的事, 但絕大多散戶就是聽或看身邊最方便但處處充滿陷阱的資訊後用情緒去進行勝算極低的賭博.

版主已經優化這個帖, 所以不論有多大都不用好似上一個帖那般太大有636萬查看及13萬回復後要關閉後開這個新帖. 所以這個帖會是永遠有效及開放的, 大家可以放心討論.

免責聲明:股票可升可跌,本帖所有留言純屬個人對市場之思維及意見,提供及披露之投資意見均默認為非持牌人士,內容提供所載的資料只供參考,絕不構成任何買賣之邀請及建議,故此一切虧損自負,請自行考量且自負風險。
如有錯漏而令閣下蒙受損失,一概不負責。任何投資行為都具有高度風險,作為一個理性投資者均應為自己的投資決策行為風險負全部責任。
Morning cfu, why changed to Singapore ig?
Morning cfu, why changed to Singapore ig?
Willie 發表於 2013-4-11 09:26 AM
better for all of us
Morning cfu, why changed to Singapore ig?
Willie 發表於 2013-4-11 09:26 AM
You open this
http://www.igmarkets.com.sg/
and
http://www.etnet.com.hk/www/tc/home/index.php

You can see the number basically is the same
even Singapore ig raise over 200, still not suggest buddies to buy yet. Not strong enough to prove it is a raise trend.
I thought I missed the buy chance already.
I thought I missed the buy chance already.
Willie 發表於 2013-4-11 09:58 AM
Depend on how do you play the game. Do you hold for very long time or just days?
Just thinking to hold for a mid term.
And actually I am thinking about to full time investment using the stats tools. Aiming to well manage and grow my retirement money.
And actually I am thinking about to full time investment using the stats tools. Aiming to well manage and grow my retirement money.
Willie 發表於 2013-4-11 10:10 AM
what stats tool do you use? You need to be professional level to do this, if not you may lose a lot of your retirement money.
And actually I am thinking about to full time investment using the stats tools. Aiming to well manage and grow my retirement money.
Willie 發表於 2013-4-11 10:10 AM
if you have enough money and you want to let your money stably grow for retirement, the easiest and safest way is buying hk apartment at low or reasonable price. HK housing market is a real "rarely material" market and have regularly rent. In long term it definitely raises except hk is not a competitive city anymore.

Market like IG is risky and not stable.

Gold doesn't have rent.
Yes, I know. So I will study and research and do simulations with the diff stats tools before action.
Yes, I know. So I will study and research and do simulations with the diff stats tools before action.
Willie 發表於 2013-4-11 10:28 AM
Yes you need to build your own trading system and knows how to test if it works or not with stats.
Exactly that is what I am thinking. Hope cfu can give more advices later.
Exactly that is what I am thinking. Hope cfu can give more advices later.
Willie 發表於 2013-4-11 10:40 AM
Sure.
I have tried many built trading program "tool", amibroker is a pretty good one.

I also know how to build one from nothing, welcome to discuss if you want.
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